Primary Vote Remains Steady in 2019

Having conducted 3 State polls in 2019 before and after the May Federal Election, support for all major parties has remained relatively steady in that period, as Tasmanian voters continue to assess policy announcements that may attract their vote.

After excluding undecided voters, the Liberal State Government’s support now stands at 38 per cent, consistent with the primary vote recorded in both March and May 2019, while the Labor opposition saw a decrease of 4 points since May with support now at 30 per cent.

The latest poll of 1,000 Tasmanian adults was conducted from the 29th to the 31st of July, during which fell the first 2 days of the current sitting period in Parliament.

“The support for all major parties has remained relatively steady in 2019, with the focus primarily on Federal issues relating to the recent May Federal Election. Whilst the Tasmanian Government’s primary vote has held at 38 per cent across all polls in 2019, this is still well below the 50 per cent of votes won in the 2018 State Election” said Samuel Paske (EMRS Chief Operations Director).

“With the support for Labor at 30 per cent currently, this means almost 1 in 3 decided voters have placed their vote with The Greens, another minor party, or an independent. We typically do see this in Tasmanian polling during an election cycle, but would strongly suspect the 16 per cent for ‘other’ in this latest poll is some residual support for high-profile federal candidates Andrew Wilkie and Jacqui Lambie.

The latest poll shows that voter preferences regarding their choice for Premier also remain largely consistent with the results earlier in the year. Premier Will Hodgman does not hold the lead in the preferred Premier rating, recording 40 per cent compared to 41 per cent in May 2019, while support for Rebecca White as the preferred option sits at 45 per cent, up 2 points from the last poll.

Mr Paske said, “These results confirm that Rebecca White has maintained her small lead over Will Hodgman as preferred Premier in the past 12 months, with the current 5-point gap the largest since December 2018.”

You can view the full report here.