Tasmanians’ Vote of Confidence in the Management of COVID-19

In the three polls since Premier Peter Gutwein was sworn in at the end of 2019, Tasmanians’ preferred Premier ratings and overall voting intentions have shown a rising trend of support for the Government, as voters have assessed its performance on issues relating to the COVID-19 pandemic.

After excluding undecided voters, the Liberal State Government’s support now stands at 54 per cent in August 2020, maintaining the high level of 52 per cent set in May 2020, and up by a considerable 11 percentage points from 43 per cent in March 2020. Meanwhile, in the same period, a shift in support away from the Labor opposition has been evident, from 34 per cent in March 2020, to 28 per cent in May 2020, and down further to 24 per cent in August 2020.

The latest poll of 1,000 Tasmanian adults was conducted from the 18th to the 24th of August.

“The latest poll results coinciding with the period of the COVID-19 impacts certainly show a sustained vote of confidence in the Government’s performance and leadership over recent months, said Paul Jamrozik (EMRS’ Research Manager).

The current 54 per cent in voter support for the Government represents a 30 point lead over Labor, exceeding the 17 point lead it held at the time of the last State election in 2018. At the same time, there has been little change in decided voter support for The Greens, remaining steady at 12 per cent currently; nor for an independent or other minor party, at 10 per cent currently.

With respect to Premier Gutwein, the rise in his personal support has been strongly in evidence over the last three polls, from 39 per cent in March, to 63 per cent in May, and up further to a large majority of 70 per cent now nominating him as their preferred Premier in August 2020.

“At 70 per cent, Premier Gutwein has clearly held the lead in the preferred Premier ratings, compared both to the 42 per cent for Will Hodgman in December 2019, and to the Opposition leader, Rebecca White, who currently sits at 23 per cent as the preferred option, down marginally from 26 per cent in the May poll, and down significantly by 18 points from 41 per cent in March 2020.

Mr Jamrozik said, “Voters will be looking to both leaders in the coming months to assess their response to the COVID-19 impacts as they unfold. It should be noted that voter preferences will need to be interpreted in this context for some time to come.”

You can view the full report here.